Forecasting the cost of unreliability for products with two-dimensional warranties
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper addresses the effect of twodimensional warranty policies on the procedure for forecasting the cost of unreliability. Automotive warranties are characterized by age or time in service and vehicle usage mileage. This paper presents a model where the usage time is a primary variable and the mileage accumulation is estimated from field return data. At each time interval the probability of exceeding the upper mileage limit on the warranty is calculated based on the mileage distribution and an analytical cumulative distribution function (CDF) of exceeding the upper mileage limit at any point of time is constructed. This modeling procedure accounts for an observed reduction in the number of warranty claims in the second half of the warranty period thus making it a more realistic evaluation of products with two-dimensional warranty policies. A case study using an automotive parts example in order to illustrate the methodology is provided.
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